Global economic seizure
Thursday, October 9. 2008
Ok folks, this is serious stuff.
This is now a national emergency.
Seven trillion dollars of wealth has been vaporized in US Stocks in the last seven days alone, with five of it since the passage of that ill-designed and foolhardy "bailout" bill.
The selloff this afternoon is the "real deal." It was not caused by the stock market getting "mad", it was caused by the short-term credit market along with the Treasury market suddenly dislocating at a few minutes before the bond pit closed at 2:00 PM.
Worse is also the fact that institutional lending has essentially disappeared - both between banks and now it is choking off commercial short-term credit across the board.
It doesn't get any more serious than this. To repeat: short-term commercial credit is threatening to completely disappear from the American scene.
Every action our government has taken thus far, including repealing mark-to-market requirements have made the situation worse by further destroying confidence.
In the overnight market the futures are imploding once again; the Osaka exchange was closed in Japan after hitting its "lock limit" within minutes prior to the Nikkei opening; the Nikkei is now down ANOTHER 10%, for a total loss of nearly 20% in just two days, with Japanese banks trading "offer only" - that is, NO BID. There are rumors of government bond market fails in parts of Europe, and Iceland has essentially been cut off from the rest of the world Interbank marketplace.
Japanese banks are now firewalling themselves from European and US claims; the interbank market is about to explode. Iceland has effectively defaulted on sovereign debt and today there was a rumor that Hungary had a failed bond auction, effectively defaulting as well.
Key: Sovereign debt (that is, Treasuries from various nations) has become infected with trash - unfortunately including ours now that Fannie and Freddie were nationalized and TARP has been passed - and may fail in a cascade-style fashion across the world. If this occurs our ability to fund our government will be cut off as well, leading to a need to reduce government spending by $800 billion a year immediately. This means huge and immediate cuts to Social Security, Medicare and Military budgets - by as much as half.
Over a year ago I warned in my writings that this could happen if we did not take action. If we did not force accountability through Congress and onto our financial system. If we did not force the thieves, liars and thugs on Wall Street to take their medicine.
Instead of taking action we have sat on our collective asses and allowed Congress to pass bailout after bailout - now our stock market is down close to 40% from the top with 20% of that loss coming in just over one week!
We are facing a global DEPRESSION and the cut-off of essential goods and services in this nation if we do not stop this lunacy immediately.
Please understand - the TRUCKER who has a full load of food headed for your grocer REQUIRES commercial credit in order to fill his truck with diesel.
The local GAS STATION owner REQUIRES commercial credit to fill his underground storage tank.
The local CAR DEALER REQUIRES commercial credit to have cars - and parts - in his dealership. No credit, no car - and no car repairs.
The manufacturer over in China REQUIRES commercial credit (letters of credit from the buyer's bank) to be able to ship those goods to America, where you can buy them. If the bank over there won't take the LOC from the bank over here, suddenly you have no tires, DVDs and other similar products to buy.
IF THESE MARKETS DO NOT IMMEDIATELY UNFREEZE THE CONSEQUENCE WILL BE THAT FOOD AND FUEL, ALONG WITH ALL OTHER MANNER OF CONSUMER PRODUCTS, MAY NOT FLOW TO YOUR GROCERY STORE AND GAS STATION.
Think about that very carefully and then consider whether YOU can afford to sit on your ass for one more second, or whether you have an absolute NEED to get on the phone, fax, and whatever else RIGHT NOW to your elected and appointed representatives and, if you do not get in response that they will IMMEDIATELY resolve this matter whether you will vow to band together with every one of your associates and friends, form a group consisting of everyone in your local city or town, and call a GENERAL STRIKE, refusing to both work and permit commerce to be conducted UNTIL THE LIARS ARE FORCED INTO THE OPEN, DEALT WITH, AND THE SYSTEM IS ABLE TO CLEAR.
We are quite literally out of time. This freeze in the markets WILL continue around the globe unless something is done NOW.
Every "intervention" and "promise" made by our government thus far - all of them - have been LIES.
Our government has done NOTHING to alleviate the problem and in fact every one of their "solutions" have made the situation worse - going back for more than a year.
We have "pumped liquidity" and even bailed out firms with taxpayer money, and yet the markets have not unfrozen.
They remain frozen because the root cause of the problem is that banks and other financial firms have been lying for more than a year, each quarter claiming to have "kitchen sinked" their losses only to report more the next quarter, and in some cases have gone on national TV to proclaim they're "well-capitalized" only days or weeks before they collapse!
The first question anyone asks when someone wishes to borrow money is whether or not they will get paid back. If the lender does not believe they will be able to be paid back then that loan will not be made, no matter how much money someone has available to them.
It really is that simple folks and yet this fundamental principle has been willfully and intentionally ignored for more than a year.
YOU MUST CHOOSE RIGHT NOW, TONIGHT, AS AN AMERICAN WHETHER YOU ARE GOING TO GO TO WORK TOMORROW AND PRETEND THAT NOTHING IS WRONG, OR WHETHER YOU ARE GOING TO ENGAGE IN PEACEFUL BUT FORCEFUL PROTEST IN DEMANDING THAT THIS CRISIS BE ADDRESSED NOT WITH "MORE OF THE SAME" BUT BY ARRESTING EACH AND EVERY ONE OF THE CROOKS, BY FORCING BALANCE SHEET TRANSPARENCY FOR EACH AND EVERY FIRM IN THE UNITED STATES, AND BY THEN FORCIBLY RECAPITALIZING VIA DEBT-TO-EQUITY "CRAMDOWNS" EACH AND EVERY INSOLVENT BANK AND OTHER FINANCIAL INSTITUTION, WITH TREASURY STEPPING IN WITH TAXPAYER MONEY ONLY AFTER THE TRUTH (OR FALSEHOOD) OF SOLVENCY IS ESTABLISHED IN PUBLIC WHERE WE CAN ALL SEE IT.
THIS IS NO LONGER JUST ABOUT YOUR RETIREMENT SAVINGS AND HOUSE (although that's important) IT NOW IS, QUITE LITERALLY, ABOUT THE ABILITY OF ORDINARY COMMERCE TO CONTINUE AND ESSENTIAL GOODS AND SERVICES - FOOD AND FUEL AMONG THEM - TO REACH OUR MARKETS.
YOU LITERALLY MUST CHOOSE NOW, AS THE TIME TO DAWDLE AND THINK ABOUT IT HAS EXPIRED.
Update 7:30 AM CT 10/10 - Overnight LIBOR has come in dramatically, but 3 month dollar LIBOR has not - in fact, it went higher. This tells you that while people do not believe the market is due to implode tomorrow - an improvement over yesterday - they also don't believe that anything will be fixed in the next few months. Thus, as of this time, the nightmare scenario remains on the table.
8:00 AM - Trading desks (from the forum and a quick check) are reporting agencies being dumped by Chinese holders. Don't be too quick to call this "screw those evil Americans" - this smells like have to sell as opposed to want to sell. LOC seizures mean goods aren't moving which means you have to sell what you can, irrespective of price. Ditto for the price dislocation in the Treasury market. Say goodnight to what's left of the housing market - as I expected would happen - its done.
9:53 - Again, for the second day, no OMO (Open Market Operations) at The Fed. Read this report carefully. Note that there are no Agencies and no Treasuries left on The Fed's balance sheet. All gone. All that is left is $80 billion of crappy MBS. Bluntly, without printing raw money, The Fed is out of Treasuries with which to lend into the market, and thus cannot perform OMO any more; they must do "other things" (like print money.) We are now officially into the twilight zone and Fed Solvency is an issue on the table. President Bush spoke again but none one word about forcing transparency among financial institutions. Raise cash now and be prepared for potential essential good and service disruptions as the supply pipelines could begin to go dry on these as soon as early next week.
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